2010 Weekly Predictions: Week 13

December 2nd, 2010 - 9:43 am

If anybody wants to make a few bucks off my predictions instead of using them for just entertainment purposes, now would be a good time to do so. Just kidding, of course, but my record over the last four weeks is 45-14 and 36-22-1 against the spread. In this topsy-turvy NFL season, I couldn’t be more pleased. Last week, it was Miami’s victory over Oakland, St. Louis’ win over Denver, and San Diego’s thumping of Indianapolis that I missed. Let’s see if I can keep on a roll this week.

Full predictions will come out later this week. Point spread for Thursday’s game comes from oddsshark.com as of Thursday late afternoon.

Last Week: 13-3
Last Week against the spread: 9-7

This Week: 12-4
This Week against the spread: 12-4

Overall: 128-64
Overall against the spread: 107-79-5

Houston Texans (5-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)
This game has the makings of a blowout as Houston’s porous defense tries to stop Michael Vick and the explosive Eagles offense. The Texans defense allows 26.1 points per game, seventh most in the league, and the Eagles offense averages 28.2 points per game, second most in the league. Houston’s pass defense is ranked No. 31 and Philadelphia’s pass offense is ranked No. 8. In short, it could get ugly early, but even if Houston somehow keeps it close, the Eagles should win.
Prediction: Philadelphia 31, Houston 20
Actual Score: Philadelphia 34, Houston 24
Spread Pick: Philadelphia -9 1/2
Actual Score: Philadelphia 34, Houston 24

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-6)
The first time these teams met this season, the Titans pounded the Jaguars, 30-3. The Jaguars seem to have found their groove in the last four weeks, but I don’t know if it’s enough to close the gap completely. Even though the Jaguars currently sit atop the AFC South, I think the Titans pull off the home victory.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 20
Actual Score: Jacksonville 17, Tennessee 6
Spread Pick: Tennessee -3 1/2
Actual Score: Jacksonville 17, Tennessee 6

Washington Redskins (5-6) at New York Giants (7-4)
It’s a matchup between the Giants’ No. 3 offense against the Redskins’ league-worst defense, and a matchup between the Redskins’ No. 21 offense against the Giants’ No. 2 defense. It’s a divisional game, so Washington may keep it close, but I expect the Giants to win.
Prediction: NY Giants 24, Washington 17
Actual Score: NY Giants 31, Washington 7
Spread Pick: NY Giants -7 (would be a push by my prediction)
Actual Score: NY Giants 31, Washington 7

Chicago Bears (8-3) at Detroit Lions (2-9)
This could be a trap game for the Bears considering the Patriots will be coming to town next week, but I don’t expect Lovie Smith to let his team overlook these pesky Lions, who will start Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Bears should win comfortably.
Prediction: Chicago 27, Detroit 14
Actual Score: Chicago 24, Detroit 20
Spread Pick: Chicago -4 1/2
Actual Score: Chicago 24, Detroit 20

Buffalo Bills (2-9) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7)
The Bills have been playing well as of late, beating the Lions and Bengals in back-to-back weeks and taking the Steelers to overtime, so this is a game they surely can win. But for as bad a record as the Vikings have, they are tough to beat at home and should prevail here.
Prediction: Minnesota 23, Buffalo 20
Actual Score: Minnesota 38, Buffalo 14
Spread Pick: Buffalo +5 1/2
Actual Score: Minnesota 38, Buffalo 14

New Orleans Saints (8-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
The Saints seem to have found their groove after a slow start to the season and the Bengals have nearly hit rock bottom. New Orleans should win big.
Prediction: New Orleans 27, Cincinnati 17
Actual Score: New Orleans 34, Cincinnati 30
Spread Pick: New Orleans -6 1/2
Actual Score: New Orleans 34, Cincinnati 30

San Francisco 49ers (4-7) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)
The Packers would have to have a monumental collapse in order to lose this game at home against a stagnant 49ers team.
Prediction: Green Bay 28, San Francisco 16
Actual Score: Green Bay 34, San Francisco 16
Spread Pick: Green Bay -9 1/2
Actual Score: Green Bay 34, San Francisco 16

Denver Broncos (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL and the Broncos are third-worst at defending the run. I expect Kansas City to control the tempo of the game and pick up the divisional win.
Prediction: Kansas City 27, Denver 21
Actual Score: Kansas City 10, Denver 6
Spread Pick: Denver +8 1/2
Actual Score: Kansas City 10, Denver 6

Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (6-5)
Chad Henne returned to action last week and had a good game against the Raiders in a big win. The Browns have a pretty good rushing offense, but the Dolphins should be able to contain them.
Prediction: Miami 20, Cleveland 17
Actual Score: Cleveland 13, Miami 10
Spread Pick: Cleveland +4 1/2
Actual Score: Cleveland 13, Miami 10

Oakland Raiders (5-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-5)
If this game were played a few weeks ago, I’d say look out for the Raiders because they were playing well and the Chargers were playing poorly. In fact, Oakland won the first meeting between these two teams. But the roles have been reversed lately and I think San Diego is playing as well as any team in the league right now and should win comfortably.
Prediction: San Diego 30, Oakland 20
Actual Score: Oakland 28, San Diego 13
Spread Pick: Oakland +13
Actual Score: Oakland 28, San Diego 13

Carolina Panthers (1-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-6)
Seattle isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire as they teeter atop the NFC West in first place with a sub-.500 record. But this is a terrible Panthers team they’re facing and they get them at home with the 12th man on their side.
Prediction: Seattle 23, Carolina 17
Actual Score: Seattle 31, Carolina 14
Spread Pick: Seattle -5 1/2
Actual Score: Seattle 31, Carolina 14

Atlanta Falcons (9-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)
What a matchup this should be. The “real” best team in the NFC against Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris’ “perceived” best team in the NFC. The Falcons are tough to beat at home but can be exposed on the road. The Bucs like to run the ball but the Falcons are No. 6 in the league at defending it. This game will hinge on how well Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman plays, and although I’m a believer in him, I don’t feel the Bucs will win this game.
Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 20
Actual Score: Atlanta 28, Tampa Bay 24
Spread Pick: Atlanta -3
Actual Score: Atlanta 28, Tampa Bay 24

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at Arizona Cardinals (3-8)
The Cardinals are a bad football team this year and the Rams have been a pleasant surprise. I expect Sam Bradford to have a good game and the Rams to stay in the division lead.
Prediction: St. Louis 24, Arizona 17
Actual Score: St. Louis 19, Arizona 6
Spread Pick: St. Louis -3 1/2
Actual Score: St. Louis 19, Arizona 6

Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
In the same stretch of games in which the Cowboys have been playing well, the Colts have been spiraling downward. The Colts have an astounding 16 players on the injury list, 12 of whom are listed as questionable. I’m not quite ready to jump off their ship yet, especially with this game being played at home.
Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Dallas 23
Actual Score: Dallas 38, Indianapolis 35
Spread Pick: Dallas +5 1/2
Actual Score: Dallas 38, Indianapolis 35

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
The NFL sure did get lucky with having great Sunday and Monday night games this week. The Ravens beat the Steelers earlier this season, and although it’s probable that one of these two teams will get a wild card spot, if the Steelers lose again to the Ravens it’ll be difficult for them to win the division. I think this will be a tight game with the Steelers edging the Ravens for the win.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 14
Actual Score: Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 10
Spread Pick: Pittsburgh +3
Actual Score: Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 10

New York Jets (9-2) at New England Patriots (9-2)
The Jets knocked off the Patriots by two touchdowns in Week 2 of the season, and you can bet New England has had this game circled on its calendar since then. Teams that are legitimate generally play better as the season progresses, so I’ll look at how New England has played in the last couple weeks before I go back and see how they looked against the Jets in their first meeting. The Patriots are a healthier team and playing at home. And they’re better.
Prediction: New England 27, NY Jets 20
Actual Score: New England 45, NY Jets 3
Spread Pick: New England -3 1/2
Actual Score: New England 45, NY Jets 3

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