Bears-Chargers prop picks (11.20.11)

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Posted in Analysis
Bears WR Earl Bennett could have a big week against the Chargers.
Bears WR Earl Bennett could have a big week against the Chargers.

Here is a look at hypothetical propositional wagers between the Bears and Chargers.

First team to score

Bears. During the Bears’ four-game win streak, they’ve outscored opponents 40-2 in the first quarter. The Chargers, meanwhile, have scored just 17 first quarter points in their last four games, all losses.

First Bears player to score

Earl Bennett. The Chargers have given up 17 passing touchdowns, fourth-most in the league this year. Bennett is Cutler’s go-to guy and, orange shoes or not, he’s got a good chance of getting into the end zone this week.

First Bears player to catch a pass

Earl Bennett. For pretty much the same reason given in the previous prop, Bennett will get an early target from Cutler.

Bears player to catch most passes

Earl Bennett. A trifecta for Bennett this week. Since coming back from his injury, Bennett has established himself as the top target in the passing game, supplanting running back Matt Forte. The smart money is on Bennett to lead in receptions for the third-straight game.

More passing yards – Jay Cutler or Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers. Much like was the case last week when Cutler completed just 9 of 19 passes for 123 yards whereas his counterpart, Matthew Stafford, threw a whopping 63 times and completed 33 passes for 329 yards, the Bears will mostly likely not have the need to sling the ball all over the field. Rivers should have the bigger game out of necessity.

More touchdown passes or interceptions by Jay Cutler

Touchdowns. As mentioned previously, the Chargers yield quite a few passing touchdowns and Cutler has been careful with the ball this season. He hasn’t thrown a pick since the Buccaneers game three weeks ago and has just two interceptions during the team’s win streak.

Jay Cutler sacks

2. The Chargers are ranked 24th with just 18 sacks this season and the Bears have been doing a great job keep Cutler upright as of late.

More rushing yards – Bears or Chargers

Bears. San Diego will need to pass out of necessity and the Bears defense is ranked 13th against the run. The Chargers defense, meanwhile, can’t seem to stop the run and they’re ninth-worst in that department.

Total combined rushing and receiving yards by Matt Forte

140. Forte’s per-game yardage total has taken a slight dip with the return of Earl Bennett and opponents scheming to take away the run.

Team to win the turnover battle

Bears. The Bears bested last week’s No. 1 turnover-ratio team so I’m not going to doubt them for the second-straight week at home, especially when the Chargers are third worst with a minus-eight turnover ratio.

Total points scored

51. The Bears are the sixth-highest scoring team in the league, due in part to their special teams and defense, but their offense has found the scoreboard quite a bit, too. San Diego has always put up a lot of points because their offense has good weapons. This should be another high scoring affair.

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